石油石化绿色低碳

“十五五”时期中国石油需求将进入峰值平台期，成品油需求达峰后呈不可逆下行趋势。这一历史性拐点对以燃料型为主的炼化行业构成严峻挑战。文章在系统研判“十五五”时期石油需求趋势特征的基础上，借鉴日本炼油业产能整合与业务重组转型经验，提出应对框架与政策建议。研究表明，2025年中国石油消费量为7.79亿吨，“十五五”期间将在7.8亿～8.0亿吨高位区间波动；汽柴油需求进入下行通道，预计“十五五”年均降幅分别达5.2%与4.2%。借鉴日本炼油业转型经验，提出“稳规模、促转型、扩出口”三位一体的战略框架：保持炼油加工规模基本稳定，为结构调整赢得战略缓冲；扩大成品油出口与保障石油安全形成“平时释放产能、战时统筹保供”的弹性机制；从产能整合、创新驱动、出口管理、财税支撑等方面配套政策，助力行业穿越周期、实现高质量可持续发展。

During the 15 th Five-Year Plan period, China's oil consumption will enter a peak plateau phase, with refined oil product demand showing an irreversible downward trend after peaking, posing severe challenges to the fuel oriented refining and chemical industry. This paper systematically analyzes the characteristics of oil consumption trends during the 15 th Five-Year Plan period, draws on the experience of capacity consolidation and business restructuring in Japan's refining industry, and proposes a response framework together with policy recommendation. The study shows that in 2025, China's oil consumption reached 779 million tons, and will fluctuate at a high level in the range of 780 million to 800 million tons during the 15 th Five-Year Plan period. Gasoline and diesel demand have entered a downward channel, with average annual declines of 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively, during the 15 th Five-Year Plan period. This paper draws on the transformation, experience of Japan's refining industry and proposes a tripartite strategic framework of "stabilizing scale, promoting transformation, and expanding exports." Keeping the refining processing scale basically stable is intended to gain strategic buffer for structural adjustment. Expanding refined oil product exports is inherently consistent with ensuring oil security, forming a flexible mechanism of "releasing capacity in normal times and ensuring supply in emergencies". The paper also suggests supporting policies in capacity consolidation, innovation-driven development, export management, and fiscal and tax support, helping the industry tide over economic cycles and achieve high-quality and sustainable development.