石油石化绿色低碳

面对国内成品油市场消费结构的根本性转变及国际航空业的减排压力，探讨我国炼油行业增产航煤与航空业绿色低碳转型之间的内在矛盾，对于统筹能源安全与“双碳”目标具有重要意义。基于“十四五”及“十五五”时期国内航煤市场供需数据，系统分析了炼油企业由汽柴油过剩转向航煤增产的驱动机制，并结合国际民航组织及主要经济体的相关政策框架，评估了国际减排规则对我国航煤产业的外部约束；进而揭示了炼油增产与绿色转型之间的结构性矛盾及其形成机理。研究表明：居民消费升级与航空运输复苏推动航煤消费全面恢复并进入稳定增长通道；汽柴油消费萎缩倒逼炼厂将航煤作为产能调节的战略性品种，国际SAF强制掺混政策对我国形成成本冲击与产业压力双重传导，但国内SAF产业化面临技术成熟度不均、成本高昂及市场机制缺失三重制约；炼油增产航煤与航空绿色转型之间“结构性时滞”——炼厂的产能锁定效应与道路交通转型压力的跨部门转移，导致航空业被动承接化石能源剩余产能，传统航煤的规模效应进一步挤压SAF市场空间。提出了“增量保需与存量提质”的协同发展框架：短期内需优化炼厂产能调节机制以保障航煤供应安全，中长期应构建“强制政策牵引、市场机制驱动”的SAF产业体系，通过跨部门协调机制化解结构性时滞，实现航煤行业短期供应安全与长期低碳转型的统筹协调。

Facing the fundamental shift in the consumption structure of the domestic refined oil market and the emission reduction pressures on the international aviation industry,exploring the inherent contradiction between increasing aviation fuel production in China's refining industry and the green and low-carbon transition of the aviation sector is of great significance for coordinating energy security with the "dual carbon" goals.Based on supply and demand data for the domestic aviation fuel market during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plan periods,this paper systematically analyzes the driving mechanisms behind refineries ' shift from a gasoline and diesel surplus to increasing aviation fuel production.By integrating the relevant policy frameworks of the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) and major economies,it assesses the external constraints imposed by international emission reduction rules on China's aviation fuel industry,further revealing the structural contradiction between increased refinery production and the green transition,along with its formation mechanism.The research indicates that:Upgraded resident consumption and the recovery of air transport have driven a full recovery in aviation fuel consumption,which has entered a stable growth trajectory.The contraction in gasoline and diesel consumption forces refineries to use aviation fuel as a strategic product for capacity adjustment.International mandatory SAF blending policies exert dual pressure on China through cost impacts and industrial impetus.However,the domestic SAF industrialization faces triple constraints:uneven technological maturity,high costs,and a lack of market mechanisms.A "structural time lag " exists between increased refinery production of aviation fuel and the aviation industry's green transition—the capacity lock-in effect at refineries and the cross-sectoral transfer of transition pressure from road transport lead the aviation industry to passively absorb residual fossil fuel capacity,while the scale effect of conventional aviation fuel further compresses the market space for SAF.A coordinated development framework of "incremental supply assurance and stock quality improvement" is proposed.In the short term,refinery capacity adjustment mechanisms need to be optimized to ensure aviation fuel supply security.In the medium to long term,an SAF industrial system driven by "mandatory policy guidance and market mechanisms " should be established,resolving the structural time lag through cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms to achieve the integrated coordination of short-term supply security and long-term low-carbon transition in the aviation fuel industry.