石油石化绿色低碳

气电是全球范围内重要的电源形式，其发展规模受资源条件、价格水平、政策导向与市场机制等多重因素影响。近年来，我国气电装机容量逐年攀升，长三角、珠三角比重较高，气—电协同发展日益紧密，已成为天然气消费第三大应用领域。未来，随着我国风光、光伏等新能源持续快速发展，灵活性气电将发挥更重要作用；“煤电+CCUS”与长时储能等商业模式尚未成熟阶段，气电将成为融合新能源、构建电力调峰体系的重要手段。预计到2030年，我国气电装机规模有望达到2.5亿千瓦，2040年达峰约3亿千瓦。建议各地区结合电力需求特征与气源保障条件因地制宜布局气电项目，东南沿海依托LNG接收站资源，重点打造“气电+新能源”分布式供能体系；西部地区借助国产气资源优势及新能源禀赋，探索“气电+新能源”大基地建设。国家层面建议进一步完善气电价格机制，健全气电调峰价值体系，深化气—电产业协同，持续推进重型燃气机组的国产化研发，为气电高质量发展提供技术支撑与制度保障，助力构建以新能源为主体的新型能源体系。

Gas-fired power is an important form of power source globally. Its development scale is affected by multiple factors such as resources, prices, policies, and markets. In recent years, the installed capacity of gas-fired power in China has been increasing year by year, with a relatively large proportion in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. The coordinated development of gas and electricity has become closer, and gas-fired power has become the third largest utilization form of natural gas. In the future, with the continuous and rapid development of new energy sources such as wind and solar power in China, flexible gas-fired power will play a greater role. Especially when business models such as "coal-fired power + CCUS" and long-term energy storage are not yet mature, gas-fired power will be an important means to integrate new energy and build a power peak-shaving system. It is expected that the installed capacity of gas-fired power in China will reach 250 million kilowatts by 2030 and peak at about 300 million kilowatts by 2040. It is suggested that various regions should layout gas-fired power projects according to local conditions in combination with the characteristics of power demand and gas source guarantee models. The southeast coastal areas should rely on LNG receiving station resources to focus on building distributed energy supply of "gas-fired power + new energy". The western regions should take advantage of domestic gas resources and new energy endowments to explore the construction of large bases of "gas-fired power + new energy". At the same time, it is suggested that the national level should improve the gas-fired power price mechanism, improve the peak-shaving value system, deepen the coordinated development of gas and power, and continue to increase the research and development of localization of heavy-duty gas turbines, so as to provide support and guarantee for the development of gas-fired power and serve the construction of a new energy system.